Alaves can't catch a break. 31 points when they deserve 36.67? That's 5.67 points stolen by the football gods. 14 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Alaves generated 1.84 xG, comfortably more than the 0.85 their opponent managed. Girona generated just 0.85 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Alaves. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
What to Expect Next
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAt -21, Alaves are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 6 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.