🏀 NBA Luck Index Rankings

The NBA Luck Index uses Pythagorean expectation to measure which basketball teams are winning more (or fewer) games than their point differential predicts. In the NBA, the most skill-driven major sport, even small luck margins can mean the difference between a 1-seed and a 4-seed.

RK	Team	Pos	Record	Luck Index	Trend	Highlight	Share
☠ Cursed
1	Charlotte Hornets NBA · 42 pts	14	42-36	-75		☠ Cursed 42-36 despite outscoring opponents by 5.1/game. One of the unluckiest teams in the NBA - close games are destroying them.
2	New Orleans Pelicans NBA · 25 pts	23	25-53	-45		☠ Cursed 25-53 and losing more than even their point differential justifies. Results betraying them consistently.
↓ Unlucky
3	Miami Heat NBA · 40 pts	17	40-37	-35		↓ Unlucky Outscoring opponents by 2.2 per game but only 40-37. Not getting full credit for their scoring advantage.
4	Boston Celtics NBA · 52 pts	4	52-25	-31		↓ Unlucky 52-25 despite outscoring opponents by 7.5/game. One of the unluckiest teams in the NBA - close games are destroying them.
5	Memphis Grizzlies NBA · 25 pts	24	25-52	-31		↓ Unlucky 25-52 while being outscored by 4.8 per game. Losing more than the numbers suggest they should.
6	Indiana Pacers NBA · 18 pts	28	18-59	-30		↓ Unlucky 18-59 while being outscored by 8.2 per game. Losing more than the numbers suggest they should.
7	New York Knicks NBA · 50 pts	5	50-28	-27		↓ Unlucky 50-28 despite outscoring opponents by 6.5/game. One of the unluckiest teams in the NBA - close games are destroying them.
8	Dallas Mavericks NBA · 24 pts	25	24-53	-25		↓ Unlucky 24-53 with a -442 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
9	Houston Rockets NBA · 48 pts	8	48-29	-21		↓ Unlucky Outscoring opponents by 4.9 per game but only 48-29. Not getting full credit for their scoring advantage.
— Neutral
10	Toronto Raptors NBA · 43 pts	12	43-34	-12		— Neutral 43-34 with a +188 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
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11	Golden State Warriors NBA · 36 pts	20	36-41	-10		— Neutral 36-41 while being outscored by 0.3 per game. Losing more than the numbers suggest they should.
12	LA Clippers NBA · 39 pts	19	39-38	-6		— Neutral Outscoring opponents by 1.1 per game but only 39-38. Not getting full credit for their scoring advantage.
13	Phoenix Suns NBA · 42 pts	15	42-35	-5		— Neutral 42-35 with a +115 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
14	Brooklyn Nets NBA · 18 pts	29	18-59	-5		— Neutral 18 wins with a -9.7/game differential. Getting more from their performances than the numbers justify.
15	Utah Jazz NBA · 21 pts	26	21-57	-3		— Neutral 21-57 with a -660 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
16	Detroit Pistons NBA · 56 pts	3	56-21	-3		— Neutral 56-21 with a +606 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
17	Oklahoma City Thunder NBA · 61 pts	1	61-16	-1		— Neutral 61-16 with a +877 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
18	Minnesota Timberwolves NBA · 46 pts	10	46-31	+4		— Neutral 46-31 with a +271 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
19	Atlanta Hawks NBA · 45 pts	11	45-33	+5		— Neutral 45-33 with a +211 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
20	Orlando Magic NBA · 41 pts	16	41-36	+12		— Neutral 41 wins from a +1 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games at an unsustainable rate.
21	Portland Trail Blazers NBA · 40 pts	18	40-38	+13		— Neutral 40 wins with a -0.5/game differential. Getting more from their performances than the numbers justify.
22	Cleveland Cavaliers NBA · 48 pts	9	48-29	+14		— Neutral 48 wins with a +4.1/game differential. Getting more from their performances than the numbers justify.
↑ Lucky
23	Washington Wizards NBA · 17 pts	30	17-59	+17		↑ Lucky 17 wins with a -11.6/game differential. Getting more from their performances than the numbers justify.
24	Sacramento Kings NBA · 21 pts	27	21-57	+19		↑ Lucky 21 wins from a -780 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games at an unsustainable rate.
25	Denver Nuggets NBA · 49 pts	7	49-28	+22		↑ Lucky 49-28 with a +369 point differential. Results match the Pythagorean closely. Getting what they deserve.
26	Chicago Bulls NBA · 29 pts	22	29-48	+28		↑ Lucky 29 wins with a -5.4/game differential. Getting more from their performances than the numbers justify.
27	San Antonio Spurs NBA · 59 pts	2	59-18	+29		↑ Lucky 59 wins with a +8.4/game differential. Getting more from their performances than the numbers justify.
28	Philadelphia 76ers NBA · 43 pts	13	43-34	+33		↑ Lucky 43 wins from a +1 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games at an unsustainable rate.
✦ Blessed
29	Milwaukee Bucks NBA · 30 pts	21	30-47	+75		✦ Blessed 30 wins from a -490 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games at an unsustainable rate.
30	Los Angeles Lakers NBA · 50 pts	6	50-27	+93		✦ Blessed 50 wins from a +119 point differential. One of the luckiest teams in the NBA - winning tight games at an unsustainable rate.