The CURSD Index:
Sport's #1 Source for Measuring Luck
How lucky (or unlucky) is your favorite team? Behind every scoreline is a narrative of fortune. We strip it away to reveal true performance.
21 Luck Signals. 6 Leagues. Updated Daily.
Every team's Luck Index is built from up to 7 independent statistical signals - expected goals, Pythagorean expectation, finishing luck, injury burden, and more - z-scored across the entire league, then combined into one number.
Your Team Got Robbed? Tell a Friend.
Fans are using CURSD to settle arguments with data.
Wolves at -55 Luck Index. MINUS FIFTY FIVE. I've been saying we're getting robbed all season and now I have the data to prove it.
Liverpool at -20 despite being 5th?? CURSD literally proves we deserve top 4. Sharing this with every City fan who tells me we're finished.
Finally a site that shows Arsenal are lucky this season. +40 Luck Index. My Chelsea mates are going to love this one.
Real Madrid +28 luck index hahaha. Sending this to every Barca fan I know. The data doesn't lie, they're getting away with it.
Wolves at -55 Luck Index. MINUS FIFTY FIVE. I've been saying we're getting robbed all season and now I have the data to prove it.
Liverpool at -20 despite being 5th?? CURSD literally proves we deserve top 4. Sharing this with every City fan who tells me we're finished.
Finally a site that shows Arsenal are lucky this season. +40 Luck Index. My Chelsea mates are going to love this one.
Real Madrid +28 luck index hahaha. Sending this to every Barca fan I know. The data doesn't lie, they're getting away with it.
Showed the Tottenham page to my wife. She finally understands why I shout at the TV. -23 Luck Index doesn't lie. We're cursed.
Les Canadiens are getting absolutely robbed this year. CURSD has the receipts. Sharing this in every hockey group chat I'm in. 🏒
Leeds -35. I'm printing the team page and framing it. This is what I've been screaming about in the stands all year. VINDICATED. 💛💙
Hornets at -89 luck index is the most Charlotte Hornets thing I've ever seen. We don't just lose, we lose UNLUCKILY. Pain.
Showed the Tottenham page to my wife. She finally understands why I shout at the TV. -23 Luck Index doesn't lie. We're cursed.
Les Canadiens are getting absolutely robbed this year. CURSD has the receipts. Sharing this in every hockey group chat I'm in. 🏒
Leeds -35. I'm printing the team page and framing it. This is what I've been screaming about in the stands all year. VINDICATED. 💛💙
Hornets at -89 luck index is the most Charlotte Hornets thing I've ever seen. We don't just lose, we lose UNLUCKILY. Pain.
Frequently Asked Questions
Everything you need to know about the Luck Index.
What is the Luck Index?
A score from -100 to +100 that measures how much luck has influenced a team's season. It combines expected goals (xG), Pythagorean expectation, and other statistical signals. Negative = unlucky, positive = lucky.
Which sports are covered?
Premier League, La Liga, Ligue 1 (soccer), NHL (hockey), NBA (basketball), and MLB (baseball). Each sport uses a tailored model - 7 signals for soccer, 6 for hockey, 4 for basketball. NFL is coming soon.
Can luck actually be measured?
Yes. Decades of academic research validate these methods. Expected goals (xG) in soccer and Pythagorean expectation in baseball/hockey/basketball are well-established methods for separating luck from skill.
Does the Luck Index predict the future?
Indirectly, yes. Teams with extreme values almost always regress toward the mean. A 'Cursed' team is likely to improve without changing anything, because bad luck doesn't persist.
How often is data updated?
Daily during active seasons. Data from API-Football (soccer), NHL Official API + MoneyPuck (hockey), ESPN API (basketball), and MLB Official API (baseball).
What is xG (expected goals)?
A statistical model assigning a probability to every shot based on location, angle, body part, and game situation. A penalty is worth ~0.76 xG. A 30-yard shot is ~0.03 xG.