Anaheim Ducks

Anaheim Ducks Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+66
Luck Index Score

Anaheim Ducks have had fortune smiling on them. 5.1 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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87
Points
Expected: 81.9
254
Goals For
Expected: 81.9
266
Goals Against
5.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · away
3-4
Lost away against Tampa Bay Lightning

One of those games where nothing went right. Anaheim Ducks created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Anaheim Ducks. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Tampa Bay Lightning. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW23 · 2025-11-26 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Vancouver Canucks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW39 · 2025-12-29 · vs San Jose Sharks · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against San Jose Sharks. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Buffalo Sabres · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Buffalo Sabres 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5
MW67 · 2026-03-15 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Montréal Canadiens 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW62 · 2026-03-06 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Montréal Canadiens 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 more points than their goal differential predicts
+27
Close Games
23-10 in one-goal games (70% win rate vs expected 50%)
+25
Shootout Record
8-0 in shootouts (net +8)
+24
OT Loss Rate
5 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-10
Total Luck Index+66

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +66, Anaheim Ducks are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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