Aston Villa

Aston Villa Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+61
Luck Index Score

Aston Villa have been living on borrowed time. 54 points from 39.14 expected? They're 14.86 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT
54
Points
Expected: 39.14
42
Goals Scored
xG: 38.02
37
Goals Conceded
xGA: 44.22
14.9
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Brentford · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Brentford

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Aston Villa created 2.4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Brentford created almost nothing - just 0.38 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Aston Villa. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
42'Kevin Schade (Brentford) - Red Card
45'D. Ouattara scores for Brentford
2.4
xG Created
0.38
Opp. xG
-2.6
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Brentford · Home-2.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.4-0.38
MW22 · 2026-01-18 · vs Everton · Home-2.1 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.44-0.51
MW28 · 2026-02-27 · vs Wolves · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.06-0.92

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Newcastle · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.16-2.18
MW18 · 2025-12-27 · vs Chelsea · Away+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.19-2.14
MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.32-0.75

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
15 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+29
Defensive Luck
Conceded 7 fewer goals than the 44.2 xGA opponents generated
+9
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 38.0 xG - clinical finishing
+8
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (112 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-1
Total Luck Index+60

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +61, Aston Villa are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches
04-12
A
Nottingham Forest
Bet
04-19
H
Sunderland
Bet
04-25
A
Fulham
Bet
05-02
H
Tottenham
Bet
05-09
A
Burnley
Bet
728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT