Athletic Club

Athletic Club Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-74
Luck Index Score

Athletic Club are the definition of "we deserved more." With 38 points from 46.63 expected, they've been robbed of 8.63 points this season. 5 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 10 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

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38
Points
Expected: 46.63
32
Goals Scored
xG: 41.6
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 31.19
8.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Alaves · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Alaves

One of those games where nothing went right. Alaves created almost nothing - just 0.09 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.2 points for Athletic Club. They got 0. That's 2.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
57'A. Berenguer scores for Alaves
1.08
xG Created
0.09
Opp. xG
-2.2
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW4 · 2025-09-13 · vs Alaves · Home-2.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.1 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.08-0.09
MW18 · 2025-12-22 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.59-0.9
MW27 · 2026-03-07 · vs Barcelona · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.85-0.4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-06 · vs Atletico Madrid · Home+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.15-0.69
MW3 · 2025-08-31 · vs Real Betis · Away+1.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.11-0.62
MW29 · 2026-03-22 · vs Real Betis · Home+1.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 2.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.26-0.47

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-17
Finishing Luck
Scored 10 fewer goals than their 41.6 xG - wasting chances
-17
Defensive Luck
Conceded 10 more goals than the 31.2 xGA opponents generated
-17
Injury Burden
High injury burden (184 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
0
Total Luck Index-74

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Athletic Club are deeply cursed at -74. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches
04-05
A
Getafe
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04-12
H
Villarreal
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04-22
H
Osasuna
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04-25
A
Atletico Madrid
Bet
05-03
A
Alaves
Bet
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