Atletico Madrid

Atletico Madrid Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+54
Luck Index Score

Atletico Madrid have been living on borrowed time. 57 points from 46.53 expected? They're 10.47 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT
57
Points
Expected: 46.53
49
Goals Scored
xG: 45.2
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 32.91
10.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Mallorca · away
1-1
Drew away against Mallorca

A draw that felt like a loss. Atletico Madrid created 2.26 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Mallorca generated just 0.6 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.4 points for Atletico Madrid. They got 1. That's 1.4 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
72'Alexander Sørloth (Atletico Madrid) - Red Card
79'C. Gallagher scores for Atletico Madrid
85'V. Muriqi scores for Mallorca (assist: J. Virgili)
2.26
xG Created
0.6
Opp. xG
-1.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Mallorca · Away-1.4 pts
Drew 1-1 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 1-1 | xG: 2.26-0.6
MW23 · 2026-02-08 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.67-0.7
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.1 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.1-1.26

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW10 · 2025-10-27 · vs Real Betis · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-0 away from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.6-1.07
MW18 · 2025-12-21 · vs Girona · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-0 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 0.9-1.06
MW17 · 2025-12-13 · vs Valencia · Home+1.8 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.01-1.17

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
10 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+21
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 45.2 xG - clinical finishing
+9
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (81 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 32.9 xGA opponents generated
+7
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
0
Total Luck Index+54

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +54, Atletico Madrid are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches
04-04
H
Barcelona
Bet
04-11
A
Sevilla
Bet
04-22
A
Elche
Bet
04-25
H
Athletic Club
Bet
05-03
A
Valencia
Bet
728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT