Barcelona

Barcelona Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+50
Luck Index Score

Barcelona have been living on borrowed time. 73 points from 56.98 expected? They're 16.02 points richer than they should be. Enjoy it while it lasts - regression is coming, and she doesn't knock.

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73
Points
Expected: 56.98
78
Goals Scored
xG: 72.81
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 36.45
16
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Real Sociedad · away
1-2
Lost away against Real Sociedad

A defeat that defied the run of play. Barcelona created 3.68 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 1. Real Sociedad generated just 1.01 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Barcelona. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'M. Oyarzabal scores for Real Sociedad (assist: G. Guedes)
70'M. Rashford scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)
71'G. Guedes scores for Real Sociedad (assist: C. Soler)
88'Carlos Soler (Real Sociedad) - Red Card
3.68
xG Created
1.01
Opp. xG
-2.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-18 · vs Real Sociedad · Away-2.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 3.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 3.68-1.01
MW24 · 2026-02-16 · vs Girona · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.7 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.72-2.86
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Sevilla · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.25-2.8

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2026-03-07 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.1 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.4-0.85
MW29 · 2026-03-22 · vs Rayo Vallecano · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.39-1.56
MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Levante · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.93-2.14

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
16 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+32
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-16
Defensive Luck
Conceded 8 fewer goals than the 36.5 xGA opponents generated
+13
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 72.8 xG - clinical finishing
+11
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+11
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+5
Injury Burden
High injury burden (144 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-5
Total Luck Index+51

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: improving|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +50, Barcelona are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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