Boston Celtics

Boston Celtics Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-31
Luck Index Score

Boston Celtics are getting roughly what they deserve. 52 points vs 55.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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52
Wins
Expected: 55.5
8827
Points For
Expected: 55.5
8246
Points Against
3.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · at home
116-117
Lost at home against Philadelphia 76ers

One of those games where nothing went right. Boston Celtics created 116 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 116 goals on an average day. They scored 116. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Boston Celtics. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

116
xG Created
117
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 116-117 to Philadelphia 76ers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 116-117 | xG: 116-117
MW42 · 2026-01-20 · vs Detroit Pistons · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 103-104 to Detroit Pistons. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 103-104 | xG: 103-104
MW8 · 2025-11-04 · vs Utah Jazz · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 103-105 to Utah Jazz. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 103-105 | xG: 103-105

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-10-31 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Philadelphia 76ers 109-108. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 109-108 | xG: 109-108
MW70 · 2026-03-21 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Memphis Grizzlies 117-112.
Score: 117-112 | xG: 117-112
MW52 · 2026-02-07 · vs Miami Heat · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Miami Heat 98-96. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 98-96 | xG: 98-96

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-18
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-11
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-6
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.6% above expected from shot locations (55.1% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+4
Total Luck Index-31

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Boston Celtics are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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