Brentford Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+18

Luck Index Score

Brentford are getting roughly what they deserve. 46 points vs 45.81 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT

Points

Expected: 45.81

Goals Scored

xG: 49.03

Goals Conceded

xGA: 42.08

0.2

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season

Matchweek 23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · at home

0-2

Lost at home against Nottingham Forest

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Brentford generated 1.81 xG, comfortably more than the 0.78 their opponent managed. Nottingham Forest generated just 0.78 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Brentford. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

12'Igor Jesus scores for Nottingham Forest

79'T. Awoniyi scores for Nottingham Forest (assist: M. Gibbs-White)

1.81

xG Created

0.78

Opp. xG

-2.1

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nottingham Forest · Home-2.1 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.81-0.78

MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Brighton · Away-1.8 pts

Lost 1-2 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.8 pts, got 0.

Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.91-1.22

MW27 · 2026-02-21 · vs Brighton · Home-1.7 pts

Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.6-1.09

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Aston Villa · Away+2.7 pts

Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.3 expected.

Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-2.4

MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Newcastle · Away+1.9 pts

Won 3-2 away from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.79-2.24

MW6 · 2025-09-27 · vs Manchester United · Home+1.6 pts

Won 3-1 home from 2.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.

Score: 3-1 | xG: 2.02-2.08

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

+15

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 fewer goals than their 49.0 xG - wasting chances

-5

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

xPTS Gap

0 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Defensive Luck

Conceded 0 more goals than the 42.1 xGA opponents generated

-1

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (130 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Discipline

Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them

Total Luck Index+16

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Brentford are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-11

Everton

Bet

04-18

Fulham

Bet

04-27

Manchester United

Bet

05-02

West Ham

Bet

05-09

Manchester City

Bet

728 x 90ADVERTISEMENT