Brewers are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 3.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 3.3
31
Runs Scored
Expected: 3.3
13
Runs Allowed
0.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.366 vs xwOBA 0.334 - batters outperforming their contact quality
+36
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+7
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.48 vs xERA 4.19 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+4
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their run differential predicts
-2
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+45
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At +45, Brewers are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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