Buffalo Sabres

Buffalo Sabres Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+28
Luck Index Score

Buffalo Sabres are getting roughly what they deserve. 100 points vs 99.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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100
Points
Expected: 99.5
264
Goals For
Expected: 99.5
225
Goals Against
0.5
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Florida Panthers · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Florida Panthers

One of those games where nothing went right. Buffalo Sabres created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Buffalo Sabres. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW44 · 2026-01-12 · vs Florida Panthers · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW6 · 2025-10-20 · vs Montréal Canadiens · Away-0.7 pts
Lost to Montréal Canadiens 2-4.
Score: 2-4 | xG: 2-4
MW15 · 2025-11-08 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away-0.7 pts
Blown out by Carolina Hurricanes 3-6. Tough night.
Score: 3-6 | xG: 3-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW75 · 2026-03-31 · vs New York Islanders · Home+0.9 pts
Edged New York Islanders 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW64 · 2026-03-08 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 8-7. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 8-7 | xG: 8-7
MW30 · 2025-12-09 · vs Edmonton Oilers · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Edmonton Oilers 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shootout Record
5-0 in shootouts (net +5)
+15
Close Games
15-11 in one-goal games (58% win rate vs expected 50%)
+10
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+3
OT Loss Rate
8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
+1
Total Luck Index+29

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|6 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Buffalo Sabres are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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