Burnley are getting roughly what they deserve. 20 points vs 22.83 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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20
Points
Expected: 22.83
33
Goals Scored
xG: 27.14
61
Goals Conceded
xGA: 62.41
2.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Crystal Palace
One of those games where nothing went right. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Burnley. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
44'D. Munoz scores for Crystal Palace (assist: M. Guehi)
0.95
xG Created
0.59
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW14 · 2025-12-03 · vs Crystal Palace · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.9 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.95-0.59
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs West Ham · Home-1.6 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.34-1.02
MW16 · 2025-12-13 · vs Fulham · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.46-2.23
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Leeds · Home+2.8 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.45-2.63
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.5 pts
Won 3-2 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.53-1.8
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Wolves · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.43-2.28
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Finishing Luck
Scored 6 more goals than their 27.1 xG - clinical finishing
+11
Injury Burden
High injury burden (171 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-5
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 62.4 xGA opponents generated
+1
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
0
Total Luck Index-6
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Burnley are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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