Calgary Flames

Calgary Flames Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+12
Luck Index Score

Calgary Flames are getting roughly what they deserve. 70 points vs 67 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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70
Points
Expected: 67
194
Goals For
Expected: 67
240
Goals Against
3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 11 · 2025-10-28 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · away
3-4
Lost away against Toronto Maple Leafs

One of those games where nothing went right. Calgary Flames created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Calgary Flames. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-10-28 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Toronto Maple Leafs. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW32 · 2025-12-10 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Detroit Red Wings. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW41 · 2026-01-03 · vs Nashville Predators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Nashville Predators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW27 · 2025-11-30 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Away+1.0 pts
Shut out on the road against Carolina Hurricanes. 1 goals conceded, 0 scored.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0-1
MW70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Tampa Bay Lightning 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW65 · 2026-03-12 · vs New Jersey Devils · Away+0.9 pts
Edged New Jersey Devils 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 more points than their goal differential predicts
+16
OT Loss Rate
8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-7
Shootout Record
4-3 in shootouts (net +1)
+3
Close Games
14-14 in one-goal games (50% win rate vs expected 50%)
0
Total Luck Index+12

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Calgary Flames are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +12 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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