Carolina Hurricanes

Carolina Hurricanes Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+27
Luck Index Score

Carolina Hurricanes are getting roughly what they deserve. 102 points vs 101.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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102
Points
Expected: 101.7
268
Goals For
Expected: 101.7
219
Goals Against
0.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 63 · 2026-03-07 · vs Calgary Flames · away
4-5
Lost away against Calgary Flames

One of those games where nothing went right. Carolina Hurricanes created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Carolina Hurricanes. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

4
xG Created
5
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW63 · 2026-03-07 · vs Calgary Flames · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Calgary Flames. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW8 · 2025-10-25 · vs Dallas Stars · Away-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Dallas Stars. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3
MW35 · 2025-12-20 · vs Tampa Bay Lightning · Away-0.8 pts
Lost to Tampa Bay Lightning 4-6.
Score: 4-6 | xG: 4-6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW69 · 2026-03-20 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW68 · 2026-03-18 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Pittsburgh Penguins 6-5 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 6-5 | xG: 6-5
MW64 · 2026-03-10 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Pittsburgh Penguins 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
21-10 in one-goal games (68% win rate vs expected 50%)
+22
Shootout Record
5-3 in shootouts (net +2)
+6
OT Loss Rate
6 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-3
Pythagorean Delta
0 more points than their goal differential predicts
+2
Total Luck Index+27

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Carolina Hurricanes are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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