Chelsea

Chelsea Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

-29
Luck Index Score

Chelsea are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 51.26 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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48
Points
Expected: 51.26
53
Goals Scored
xG: 59.28
38
Goals Conceded
xGA: 41.86
3.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Fulham · away
1-2
Lost away against Fulham

A defeat that defied the run of play. Chelsea created 2.39 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Chelsea. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
22'Marc Cucurella (Chelsea) - Red Card
55'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham (assist: S. Berge)
72'L. Delap scores for Chelsea
81'H. Wilson scores for Fulham
2.39
xG Created
1.2
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Fulham · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.39-1.2
MW18 · 2025-12-27 · vs Aston Villa · Home-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 2.0 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.14-1.19
MW30 · 2026-03-14 · vs Newcastle · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.39-1.41

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-10-04 · vs Liverpool · Home+2.2 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.8 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1-1.95
MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Nottingham Forest · Away+2.0 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.67-2.35
MW22 · 2026-01-17 · vs Brentford · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.59-1.52

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Finishing Luck
Scored 6 fewer goals than their 59.3 xG - wasting chances
-11
Injury Burden
High injury burden (185 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-9
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-6
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-5
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 fewer goals than the 41.9 xGA opponents generated
+4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
0
Total Luck Index-30

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -29, Chelsea are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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