Chicago Bulls

Chicago Bulls Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+28
Luck Index Score

Chicago Bulls are getting roughly what they deserve. 29 points vs 26.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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29
Wins
Expected: 26.8
8948
Points For
Expected: 26.8
9362
Points Against
2.2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 74 · 2026-03-29 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · away
124-125
Lost away against Memphis Grizzlies

One of those games where nothing went right. Chicago Bulls created 124 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 124 goals on an average day. They scored 124. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Chicago Bulls. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

124
xG Created
125
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-29 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 124-125 to Memphis Grizzlies. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 124-125 | xG: 124-125
MW10 · 2025-11-11 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to San Antonio Spurs 117-121.
Score: 117-121 | xG: 117-121
MW12 · 2025-11-17 · vs Utah Jazz · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 147-150 to Utah Jazz. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 147-150 | xG: 147-150

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW28 · 2025-12-21 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Atlanta Hawks 152-150. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 152-150 | xG: 152-150
MW16 · 2025-11-23 · vs Washington Wizards · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Washington Wizards 121-120. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 121-120 | xG: 121-120
MW14 · 2025-11-20 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Portland Trail Blazers 122-121. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 122-121 | xG: 122-121

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their point differential predicts
+13
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+8
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+4
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.3% above expected from shot locations (54.8% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+2
Total Luck Index+27

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Chicago Bulls are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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