Cleveland Cavaliers

Cleveland Cavaliers Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+14
Luck Index Score

Cleveland Cavaliers are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 47.6 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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48
Wins
Expected: 47.6
9187
Points For
Expected: 47.6
8873
Points Against
0.4
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Miami Heat · away
138-140
Lost away against Miami Heat

One of those games where nothing went right. Cleveland Cavaliers created 138 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 138 goals on an average day. They scored 138. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Cleveland Cavaliers. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

138
xG Created
140
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Miami Heat · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 138-140 to Miami Heat. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 138-140 | xG: 138-140
MW21 · 2025-11-30 · vs Boston Celtics · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 115-117 to Boston Celtics. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 115-117 | xG: 115-117
MW32 · 2025-12-25 · vs New York Knicks · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 124-126 to New York Knicks. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 124-126 | xG: 124-126

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-25 · vs Orlando Magic · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Orlando Magic 136-131.
Score: 136-131 | xG: 136-131
MW70 · 2026-03-20 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Chicago Bulls 115-110.
Score: 115-110 | xG: 115-110
MW63 · 2026-03-04 · vs Detroit Pistons · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Detroit Pistons 113-109.
Score: 113-109 | xG: 113-109

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.5% above expected from shot locations (56.0% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+11
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
+3
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+2
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-2
Total Luck Index+14

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Cleveland Cavaliers are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +14 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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