Crystal Palace can't catch a break. 39 points when they deserve 44.55? That's 5.55 points stolen by the football gods. 11 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
A defeat that defied the run of play. Crystal Palace generated 1.8 xG, comfortably more than the 0.53 their opponent managed. Burnley generated just 0.53 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.3 points for Crystal Palace. They got 0. That's 2.3 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
What to Expect Next
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsCrystal Palace are deeply cursed at -40. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.