D-backs are getting roughly what they deserve. 1 points vs 1.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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1
Wins
Expected: 1.5
17
Runs Scored
Expected: 1.5
22
Runs Allowed
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pitching Luck
ERA 5.65 vs xERA 14.61 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+89
Pythagorean Delta
1 more wins than their run differential predicts
+21
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.289 vs xwOBA 0.306 - hard contact not converting into hits
-17
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
0
Total Luck Index+93
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
At +93, D-backs are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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