Detroit Red Wings

Detroit Red Wings Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+34
Luck Index Score

Detroit Red Wings have had fortune smiling on them. 5.1 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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88
Points
Expected: 82.9
220
Goals For
Expected: 82.9
225
Goals Against
5.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 23 · 2025-11-24 · vs New Jersey Devils · away
3-4
Lost away against New Jersey Devils

One of those games where nothing went right. Detroit Red Wings created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Detroit Red Wings. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2025-11-24 · vs New Jersey Devils · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New Jersey Devils. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW65 · 2026-03-10 · vs Florida Panthers · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Florida Panthers. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW71 · 2026-03-24 · vs Ottawa Senators · Home-0.8 pts
Lost 2-3 against Ottawa Senators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2-3

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW50 · 2026-01-18 · vs Ottawa Senators · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Ottawa Senators 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW47 · 2026-01-12 · vs Carolina Hurricanes · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Carolina Hurricanes 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW38 · 2025-12-23 · vs Dallas Stars · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Dallas Stars 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
5 more points than their goal differential predicts
+27
Close Games
18-12 in one-goal games (60% win rate vs expected 50%)
+13
Shootout Record
2-3 in shootouts (net -1)
-3
OT Loss Rate
8 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-2
Total Luck Index+35

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Detroit Red Wings are riding their luck at +34. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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