Elche are getting roughly what they deserve. 29 points vs 32.37 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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29
Points
Expected: 32.37
38
Goals Scored
xG: 34.13
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 52.79
3.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Villarreal · at home
1-3
Lost at home against Villarreal
One of those games where nothing went right. Elche generated 1.31 xG, comfortably more than the 1.52 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.2 points for Elche. They got 0. That's 1.2 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
7'A. Moleiro scores for Villarreal (assist: G. Mikautadze)
13'G. Mikautadze scores for Villarreal (assist: N. Pepe)
30'M. Neto scores for Elche (assist: A. Febas)
83'A. Pedraza scores for Villarreal (assist: S. Cardona)
1.31
xG Created
1.52
Opp. xG
-1.2
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW18 · 2026-01-03 · vs Villarreal · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.31-1.52
MW26 · 2026-03-01 · vs Espanyol · Home-1.2 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 1.9 xG. Expected 2.2 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 1.9-0.73
MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Villarreal · Away-1.1 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.22-1.58
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Levante · Home+1.6 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.4 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.11-1.01
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Mallorca · Home+1.5 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.6-1.37
MW5 · 2025-09-21 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.55-1.09
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Finishing Luck
Scored 4 more goals than their 34.1 xG - clinical finishing
+9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 fewer goals than the 52.8 xGA opponents generated
+8
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (83 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+8
xPTS Gap
3 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-7
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-1
Total Luck Index+18
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: declining|8 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Elche are riding their luck at +18. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. Recent results already show signs of the correction. A dip in form is probable.
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