Espanyol are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 38.32 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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37
Points
Expected: 38.32
36
Goals Scored
xG: 38.83
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 40.27
1.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · at home
1-2
Lost at home against Real Betis
One of those games where nothing went right. Espanyol created 2.28 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 1. The model valued this match at 1.9 points for Espanyol. They got 0. That's 1.9 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
15'P. Lozano scores for Espanyol (assist: C. Riedel)
54'Cucho Hernandez scores for Real Betis (assist: R. Rodriguez)
63'A. Ezzalzouli scores for Real Betis (assist: P. Fornals)
2.28
xG Created
1.4
Opp. xG
-1.9
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW8 · 2025-10-05 · vs Real Betis · Home-1.9 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.9 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.28-1.4
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Getafe · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 1.8 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.75-1.51
MW6 · 2025-09-23 · vs Valencia · Home-1.4 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 2.6 xG. Expected 2.4 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.57-0.74
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW17 · 2025-12-22 · vs Athletic Club · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.59
MW13 · 2025-11-24 · vs Sevilla · Home+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.09-1.82
MW14 · 2025-11-30 · vs Celta Vigo · Away+2.0 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.38-0.63
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (52 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+15
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 40.3 xGA opponents generated
-8
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 38.8 xG - wasting chances
-4
xPTS Gap
1 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-2
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1
Total Luck Index+7
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: declining|9 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Espanyol are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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