Florida Panthers

Florida Panthers Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+25
Luck Index Score

Florida Panthers are getting roughly what they deserve. 77 points vs 76.2 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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77
Points
Expected: 76.2
224
Goals For
Expected: 76.2
248
Goals Against
0.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 52 · 2026-01-27 · vs Utah Mammoth · at home
3-4
Lost at home against Utah Mammoth

One of those games where nothing went right. Florida Panthers created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Florida Panthers. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW52 · 2026-01-27 · vs Utah Mammoth · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Utah Mammoth. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW53 · 2026-01-29 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW60 · 2026-03-01 · vs New York Islanders · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW70 · 2026-03-24 · vs Seattle Kraken · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Seattle Kraken 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW64 · 2026-03-10 · vs Detroit Red Wings · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Detroit Red Wings 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW56 · 2026-02-04 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 5-4 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
20-9 in one-goal games (69% win rate vs expected 50%)
+24
OT Loss Rate
3 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-16
Shootout Record
5-1 in shootouts (net +4)
+12
Pythagorean Delta
1 more points than their goal differential predicts
+4
Total Luck Index+24

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Florida Panthers are riding their luck at +25. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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