Fulham

Fulham Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+38
Luck Index Score

Fulham have had fortune smiling on them. 4.08 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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44
Points
Expected: 39.92
43
Goals Scored
xG: 40.05
44
Goals Conceded
xGA: 43.42
4.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · away
2-3
Lost away against Manchester United

One of those games where nothing went right. Fulham generated 1.94 xG, comfortably more than the 1.79 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Fulham. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
19'Casemiro scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
56'M. Cunha scores for Manchester United (assist: Casemiro)
85'R. Jimenez scores for Fulham
90'Kevin scores for Fulham (assist: R. Sessegnon)
90'B. Sesko scores for Manchester United (assist: B. Fernandes)
1.94
xG Created
1.79
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW24 · 2026-02-01 · vs Manchester United · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 1.9 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 1.94-1.79
MW25 · 2026-02-07 · vs Everton · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 1-2 home despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.97-1.88
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Manchester City · Away-1.4 pts
Lost 0-3 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-3 | xG: 1.42-1.37

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Chelsea · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.2-2.39
MW13 · 2025-11-29 · vs Tottenham · Away+2.1 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.45-0.86
MW23 · 2026-01-24 · vs Brighton · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.05-1.59

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+13
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (74 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+11
xPTS Gap
4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+8
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 40.0 xG - clinical finishing
+7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 more goals than the 43.4 xGA opponents generated
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
0
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
0
Total Luck Index+38

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Fulham are riding their luck at +38. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

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