Getafe have had fortune smiling on them. 5.31 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.
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38
Points
Expected: 32.69
25
Goals Scored
xG: 22.21
31
Goals Conceded
xGA: 31.19
5.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · away
1-2
Lost away against Osasuna
One of those games where nothing went right. Osasuna created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Getafe. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
23'B. Mayoral scores for Getafe (assist: L. Milla)
45'A. Bretones scores for Osasuna (assist: V. Munoz)
90'A. Catena scores for Osasuna (assist: R. Garcia)
0.82
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW8 · 2025-10-03 · vs Osasuna · Away-1.7 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 0.82-0.43
MW25 · 2026-02-22 · vs Sevilla · Home-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.3 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.32-0.32
MW28 · 2026-03-14 · vs Atletico Madrid · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-1.48
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW26 · 2026-03-02 · vs Real Madrid · Away+2.5 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.49-1.91
MW27 · 2026-03-08 · vs Real Betis · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-0 home from 0.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 0.37-1.11
MW11 · 2025-10-31 · vs Girona · Home+2.0 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.88-1.43
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+11
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-10
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 more goals than their 22.2 xG - clinical finishing
+7
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (104 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 0 more goals than the 31.2 xGA opponents generated
-1
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+1
Total Luck Index+8
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|9 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Getafe are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +7 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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