Golden State Warriors

Golden State Warriors Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-10
Luck Index Score

Golden State Warriors are getting roughly what they deserve. 36 points vs 37.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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36
Wins
Expected: 37.8
8841
Points For
Expected: 37.8
8864
Points Against
1.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 23 · 2025-12-05 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · away
98-99
Lost away against Philadelphia 76ers

One of those games where nothing went right. Golden State Warriors created 98 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 98 goals on an average day. They scored 98. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Golden State Warriors. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

98
xG Created
99
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2025-12-05 · vs Philadelphia 76ers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 98-99 to Philadelphia 76ers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 98-99 | xG: 98-99
MW28 · 2025-12-19 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 98-99 to Phoenix Suns. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 98-99 | xG: 98-99
MW37 · 2026-01-06 · vs LA Clippers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 102-103 to LA Clippers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 102-103 | xG: 102-103

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW54 · 2026-02-10 · vs Memphis Grizzlies · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Memphis Grizzlies 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113
MW14 · 2025-11-15 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Away+0.5 pts
Edged San Antonio Spurs 109-108. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 109-108 | xG: 109-108
MW74 · 2026-03-28 · vs Washington Wizards · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 131-126.
Score: 131-126 | xG: 131-126

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-9
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-5
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.6% above expected from shot locations (55.0% eFG vs 54.4% xeFG)
+4
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-1
Total Luck Index-11

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Golden State Warriors are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -10 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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