Guardians are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 1.7 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 1.7
17
Runs Scored
Expected: 1.7
24
Runs Allowed
1.3
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Pythagorean Delta
2 more wins than their run differential predicts
+40
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.283 vs xwOBA 0.309 - hard contact not converting into hits
-27
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+11
Pitching Luck
ERA 3.69 vs xERA 4.30 - pitchers suppressing runs beyond what contact quality predicts
+3
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index+27
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Guardians are riding their luck at +27. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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