Houston Rockets

Houston Rockets Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-21
Luck Index Score

Houston Rockets are getting roughly what they deserve. 48 points vs 49.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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48
Wins
Expected: 49.8
8836
Points For
Expected: 49.8
8461
Points Against
1.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-21 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · away
124-125
Lost away against Oklahoma City Thunder

One of those games where nothing went right. Houston Rockets created 124 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 124 goals on an average day. They scored 124. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Houston Rockets. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

124
xG Created
125
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-21 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 124-125 to Oklahoma City Thunder. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 124-125 | xG: 124-125
MW26 · 2025-12-22 · vs Sacramento Kings · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 124-125 to Sacramento Kings. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 124-125 | xG: 124-125
MW34 · 2026-01-08 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 102-103 to Portland Trail Blazers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 102-103 | xG: 102-103

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Miami Heat · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Miami Heat 123-122. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 123-122 | xG: 123-122
MW66 · 2026-03-14 · vs New Orleans Pelicans · Home+0.4 pts
Edged New Orleans Pelicans 107-105. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 107-105 | xG: 107-105
MW60 · 2026-03-03 · vs Washington Wizards · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Washington Wizards 123-118.
Score: 123-118 | xG: 123-118

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-9
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-5
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-4
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.4% below expected from shot locations (54.2% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)
-3
Total Luck Index-21

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -21, Houston Rockets are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 2 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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