Indiana Pacers

Indiana Pacers Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-30
Luck Index Score

Indiana Pacers are getting roughly what they deserve. 18 points vs 21 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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18
Wins
Expected: 21
8669
Points For
Expected: 21
9301
Points Against
3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 27 · 2025-12-19 · vs New York Knicks · at home
113-114
Lost at home against New York Knicks

One of those games where nothing went right. Indiana Pacers created 113 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 113 goals on an average day. They scored 113. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Indiana Pacers. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

113
xG Created
114
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW27 · 2025-12-19 · vs New York Knicks · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 113-114 to New York Knicks. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-114 | xG: 113-114
MW74 · 2026-03-27 · vs LA Clippers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 113-114 to LA Clippers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-114 | xG: 113-114
MW1 · 2025-10-23 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Oklahoma City Thunder 135-141.
Score: 135-141 | xG: 135-141

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW72 · 2026-03-23 · vs Orlando Magic · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Orlando Magic 128-126. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 128-126 | xG: 128-126
MW55 · 2026-02-12 · vs Brooklyn Nets · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Brooklyn Nets 115-110.
Score: 115-110 | xG: 115-110
MW54 · 2026-02-11 · vs New York Knicks · Away+0.4 pts
Edged New York Knicks 137-134. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 137-134 | xG: 137-134

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-15
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-10
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.2% below expected from shot locations (53.3% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-9
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+4
Total Luck Index-30

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -30, Indiana Pacers are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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