LA Clippers are getting roughly what they deserve. 39 points vs 41 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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39
Wins
Expected: 41
8753
Points For
Expected: 41
8670
Points Against
2
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 6 · 2025-11-04 · vs Miami Heat · at home
119-120
Lost at home against Miami Heat
One of those games where nothing went right. LA Clippers created 119 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 119 goals on an average day. They scored 119. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for LA Clippers. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.
119
xG Created
120
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW6 · 2025-11-04 · vs Miami Heat · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 119-120 to Miami Heat. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 119-120 | xG: 119-120
MW10 · 2025-11-11 · vs Atlanta Hawks · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 102-105 to Atlanta Hawks. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 102-105 | xG: 102-105
MW13 · 2025-11-16 · vs Boston Celtics · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 118-121 to Boston Celtics. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 118-121 | xG: 118-121
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW74 · 2026-03-27 · vs Indiana Pacers · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Indiana Pacers 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113
MW55 · 2026-02-20 · vs Denver Nuggets · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Denver Nuggets 115-114. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 115-114 | xG: 115-114
MW35 · 2026-01-06 · vs Golden State Warriors · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Golden State Warriors 103-102. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 103-102 | xG: 103-102
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.5% above expected from shot locations (56.0% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+11
Pythagorean Delta
2 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-9
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-6
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-1
Total Luck Index-5
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
LA Clippers are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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