Leeds are the definition of "we deserved more." With 33 points from 43.37 expected, they've been robbed of 10.37 points this season. 12 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 6 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Leeds created 2.63 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 0. Burnley created almost nothing - just 0.45 xG - but scored 2 goals. The model valued this match at 2.6 points for Leeds. They got 0. That's 2.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
What to Expect Next
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsAt -35, Leeds are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 10 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.