Levante

Levante Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

-13
Luck Index Score

Levante can't catch a break. 26 points when they deserve 32.38? That's 6.38 points stolen by the football gods. 15 losses, many of them undeserved based on the chances created. If luck were a stat, they'd be bottom of the table.

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26
Points
Expected: 32.38
34
Goals Scored
xG: 36.38
48
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.44
6.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Barcelona · at home
2-3
Lost at home against Barcelona

One of those games where nothing went right. Levante created 2.14 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 2. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Levante. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
15'I. Romero scores for Levante (assist: J. Toljan)
45'J. Morales scores for Levante
49'Pedri scores for Barcelona (assist: Lamine Yamal)
52'F. Torres scores for Barcelona (assist: Raphinha)
90'U. Elgezabal scores for Barcelona
2.14
xG Created
1.93
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Barcelona · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 2-3 home despite 2.1 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.14-1.93
MW3 · 2025-08-29 · vs Elche · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.01-1.11
MW23 · 2026-02-15 · vs Valencia · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 0.6 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.63-0.68

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW17 · 2026-01-04 · vs Sevilla · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.0 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.03-1.7
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Oviedo · Home+1.3 pts
Won 4-2 home from 1.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 4-2 | xG: 1.82-1.34
MW8 · 2025-10-04 · vs Oviedo · Away+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.94-1.31

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-12
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-4
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 36.4 xG - wasting chances
-3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 1 fewer goals than the 49.4 xGA opponents generated
+1
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (113 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
0
Total Luck Index-13

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Levante are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -13 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

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