Lorient are getting roughly what they deserve. 37 points vs 35.02 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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37
Points
Expected: 35.02
37
Goals Scored
xG: 34.57
41
Goals Conceded
xGA: 37.08
2
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Angers · away
0-2
Lost away against Angers
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Lorient generated 1.99 xG, comfortably more than the 0.93 their opponent managed. Angers generated just 0.93 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.1 points for Lorient. They got 0. That's 2.1 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
Match timeline
16'P. Peter scores for Angers
59'S. Cherif scores for Angers
1.99
xG Created
0.93
Opp. xG
-2.1
Pts Lost
☠ Unluckiest Matches
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Angers · Away-2.1 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.99-0.93
MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Auxerre · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.37-1.44
MW7 · 2025-10-03 · vs Paris FC · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 0-2 away despite 1.0 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 0.97-1.02
✦ Luckiest Matches
MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Nantes · Home+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.52-1.42
MW19 · 2026-01-24 · vs Rennes · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-0 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.29-1.76
MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Monaco · Away+1.5 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.38-1.25
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+13
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 34.6 xG - clinical finishing
+8
Defensive Luck
Conceded 4 more goals than the 37.1 xGA opponents generated
-6
Injury Burden
High injury burden (165 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-6
xPTS Gap
2 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-1
Total Luck Index+14
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|11 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Lorient are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +15 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.
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