Mallorca

Mallorca Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View La Liga standings →

+16
Luck Index Score

Mallorca are getting roughly what they deserve. 28 points vs 29.59 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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28
Points
Expected: 29.59
34
Goals Scored
xG: 32.09
47
Goals Conceded
xGA: 49.41
1.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Real Sociedad · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Real Sociedad

One of those games where nothing went right. Real Sociedad created almost nothing - just 0.43 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 1.5 points for Mallorca. They got 0. That's 1.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
36'C. Soler scores for Real Sociedad
0.66
xG Created
0.43
Opp. xG
-1.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW26 · 2026-02-28 · vs Real Sociedad · Home-1.5 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.7 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.66-0.43
MW4 · 2025-09-15 · vs Espanyol · Away-1.3 pts
Lost 2-3 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 2-3 | xG: 2.23-2.46
MW29 · 2026-03-21 · vs Elche · Away-1.2 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 1.2 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.37-1.6

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW7 · 2025-09-27 · vs Alaves · Home+1.7 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.74-0.78
MW12 · 2025-11-09 · vs Getafe · Home+1.4 pts
Won 1-0 home from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.6 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 1.11-0.75
MW20 · 2026-01-17 · vs Athletic Club · Home+1.3 pts
Won 3-2 home from 2.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.7 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 2.79-2.11

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 more goals than their 32.1 xG - clinical finishing
+5
xPTS Gap
2 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-3
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 49.4 xGA opponents generated
+3
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (106 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+3
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+1
Total Luck Index+17

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|9 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Mallorca are riding their luck at +16. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches
04-04
H
Real Madrid
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04-12
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Rayo Vallecano
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04-22
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Valencia
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04-25
A
Alaves
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05-03
A
Girona
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