Manchester City

Manchester City Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+49
Luck Index Score

Manchester City have had fortune smiling on them. 5.81 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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61
Points
Expected: 55.19
60
Goals Scored
xG: 55.07
28
Goals Conceded
xGA: 32.92
5.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Tottenham · at home
0-2
Lost at home against Tottenham

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester City generated 1.55 xG, comfortably more than the 1.11 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Manchester City. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
35'B. Johnson scores for Tottenham (assist: Richarlison)
45'J. Palhinha scores for Tottenham
1.55
xG Created
1.11
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-08-23 · vs Tottenham · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-2 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-2 | xG: 1.55-1.11
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Aston Villa · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 1.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.18-0.81
MW12 · 2025-11-22 · vs Newcastle · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 2.49-2.24

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.1 pts
Won 3-0 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.9 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.19-1.88
MW26 · 2026-02-11 · vs Fulham · Home+1.7 pts
Won 3-0 home from 1.4 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-0 | xG: 1.37-1.42
MW7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Brentford · Away+1.6 pts
Won 1-0 away from 0.8 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.5 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.85-0.7

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
6 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+12
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
+11
Finishing Luck
Scored 5 more goals than their 55.1 xG - clinical finishing
+10
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 5 fewer goals than the 32.9 xGA opponents generated
+6
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+2
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (130 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+1
Total Luck Index+49

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|8 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +49, Manchester City are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

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