Manchester United Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Premier League standings →

+28

Luck Index Score

Manchester United have had fortune smiling on them. 4.39 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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Points

Expected: 50.61

Goals Scored

xG: 53.22

Goals Conceded

xGA: 38.47

4.4

Points Above Expected

Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season

Matchweek 12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Everton · at home

0-1

Lost at home against Everton

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Manchester United generated 1.71 xG, comfortably more than the 0.21 their opponent managed. Everton created almost nothing - just 0.21 xG - but scored 1 goal. The model valued this match at 2.5 points for Manchester United. They got 0. That's 2.5 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline

13'Idrissa Gueye (Everton) - Red Card

29'K. Dewsbury-Hall scores for Everton (assist: J. Garner)

1.71

xG Created

0.21

Opp. xG

-2.5

Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW12 · 2025-11-24 · vs Everton · Home-2.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.7 xG. Expected 2.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.71-0.21

MW21 · 2026-01-07 · vs Burnley · Away-1.7 pts

Drew 2-2 away despite 2.5 xG. Expected 2.7 pts, got 1.

Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.55-0.24

MW1 · 2025-08-17 · vs Arsenal · Home-1.5 pts

Lost 0-1 home despite 1.5 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.

Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.52-1.31

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-19 · vs Liverpool · Away+2.3 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.34-2.75

MW23 · 2026-01-25 · vs Arsenal · Away+2.0 pts

Won 3-2 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.71-1.19

MW13 · 2025-11-30 · vs Crystal Palace · Away+2.0 pts

Won 2-1 away from 1.2 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.0 expected.

Score: 2-1 | xG: 1.19-1.83

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap

4 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve

Defensive Luck

Conceded 5 more goals than the 38.5 xGA opponents generated

-7

Schedule Strength

Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far

Finishing Luck

Scored 3 more goals than their 53.2 xG - clinical finishing

Injury Burden

Low injury burden (107 player-games missed) - squad depth available

Discipline

Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side

Shot Volume Gap

Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants

Total Luck Index+27

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook

Correction Probable

Last 5: improving|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds

Why?

Manchester United are riding their luck at +28. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

04-13

Leeds

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04-18

Chelsea

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04-27

Brentford

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05-03

Liverpool

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05-09

Sunderland

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