Mariners are getting roughly what they deserve. 3 points vs 3.6 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.
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3
Wins
Expected: 3.6
24
Runs Scored
Expected: 3.6
14
Runs Allowed
0.6
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
Batting Luck
wOBA 0.293 vs xwOBA 0.312 - hard contact not converting into hits
-18
Pythagorean Delta
1 fewer wins than their run differential predicts
-17
Pitching Luck
ERA 2.87 vs xERA 2.85 - pitchers allowing more runs than contact quality suggests
-4
Diff Consistency
Run differential per game says they should be winning more
-2
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their run differential deserves
0
Total Luck Index-41
What to Expect Next
Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|37 games left
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsWhy?
Mariners are deeply cursed at -41. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.
Next Matches
No upcoming fixtures available
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