Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis Grizzlies Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-31
Luck Index Score

Memphis Grizzlies are getting roughly what they deserve. 25 points vs 27.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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25
Wins
Expected: 27.9
8841
Points For
Expected: 27.9
9208
Points Against
2.9
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 38 · 2026-01-10 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · at home
116-117
Lost at home against Oklahoma City Thunder

One of those games where nothing went right. Memphis Grizzlies created 116 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 116 goals on an average day. They scored 116. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Memphis Grizzlies. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

116
xG Created
117
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW38 · 2026-01-10 · vs Oklahoma City Thunder · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 116-117 to Oklahoma City Thunder. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 116-117 | xG: 116-117
MW52 · 2026-02-10 · vs Golden State Warriors · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 113-114 to Golden State Warriors. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-114 | xG: 113-114
MW6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to Los Angeles Lakers 112-117.
Score: 112-117 | xG: 112-117

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW74 · 2026-03-29 · vs Chicago Bulls · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 125-124. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 125-124 | xG: 125-124
MW36 · 2026-01-07 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home+0.5 pts
Edged San Antonio Spurs 106-105. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 106-105 | xG: 106-105
MW5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away+0.5 pts
Edged Phoenix Suns 114-113. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 114-113 | xG: 114-113

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-15
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-9
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.1% below expected from shot locations (53.4% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-9
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+2
Total Luck Index-31

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -31, Memphis Grizzlies are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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