Metz are the definition of "we deserved more." With 14 points from 24.22 expected, they've been robbed of 10.22 points this season. 5 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 2 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.
Luck Index Evolution
How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season
A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Metz generated 1.52 xG, comfortably more than the 0.87 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.8 points for Metz. They got 0. That's 1.8 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.
☠ Unluckiest Matches
✦ Luckiest Matches
What's Driving the Luck Index
Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.
What to Expect Next
Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.
See the oddsMetz are deeply cursed at -58. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.