Miami Heat

Miami Heat Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-35
Luck Index Score

Miami Heat are getting roughly what they deserve. 40 points vs 43.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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40
Wins
Expected: 43.3
9267
Points For
Expected: 43.3
9101
Points Against
3.3
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Orlando Magic · away
105-106
Lost away against Orlando Magic

One of those games where nothing went right. Miami Heat created 105 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 105 goals on an average day. They scored 105. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Miami Heat. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

105
xG Created
106
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW23 · 2025-12-06 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 105-106 to Orlando Magic. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 105-106 | xG: 105-106
MW71 · 2026-03-22 · vs Houston Rockets · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 122-123 to Houston Rockets. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 122-123 | xG: 122-123
MW1 · 2025-10-22 · vs Orlando Magic · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Orlando Magic 121-125.
Score: 121-125 | xG: 121-125

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW11 · 2025-11-11 · vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Cleveland Cavaliers 140-138. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 140-138 | xG: 140-138
MW7 · 2025-11-04 · vs LA Clippers · Away+0.5 pts
Edged LA Clippers 120-119. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 120-119 | xG: 120-119
MW49 · 2026-01-30 · vs Chicago Bulls · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Chicago Bulls 116-113. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 116-113 | xG: 116-113

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
3 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-17
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-11
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 0.6% below expected from shot locations (53.9% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
-5
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-3
Total Luck Index-36

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -35, Miami Heat are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 3 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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