Milwaukee Bucks

Milwaukee Bucks Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+75
Luck Index Score

Milwaukee Bucks have had fortune smiling on them. 5.8 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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30
Wins
Expected: 24.2
8509
Points For
Expected: 24.2
8999
Points Against
5.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 34 · 2026-01-01 · vs Washington Wizards · at home
113-114
Lost at home against Washington Wizards

One of those games where nothing went right. Milwaukee Bucks created 113 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 113 goals on an average day. They scored 113. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Milwaukee Bucks. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

113
xG Created
114
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW34 · 2026-01-01 · vs Washington Wizards · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 113-114 to Washington Wizards. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-114 | xG: 113-114
MW3 · 2025-10-26 · vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Cleveland Cavaliers 113-118.
Score: 113-118 | xG: 113-118
MW6 · 2025-11-01 · vs Sacramento Kings · Home-0.4 pts
Lost 133-135 to Sacramento Kings. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 133-135 | xG: 133-135

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW35 · 2026-01-03 · vs Charlotte Hornets · Home+0.5 pts
Edged Charlotte Hornets 122-121. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 122-121 | xG: 122-121
MW70 · 2026-03-22 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Phoenix Suns 108-105. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 108-105 | xG: 108-105
MW57 · 2026-02-26 · vs Cleveland Cavaliers · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Cleveland Cavaliers 118-116. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 118-116 | xG: 118-116

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
6 more wins than their point differential predicts
+33
Win% Gap
Winning at a higher rate than their scoring margin supports
+20
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 2.1% above expected from shot locations (56.6% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+16
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+6
Total Luck Index+75

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Decline
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At +75, Milwaukee Bucks are living on borrowed time. This level of overperformance is historically unsustainable. The gap between their results and their actual quality is too large to maintain.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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