Minnesota Timberwolves

Minnesota Timberwolves Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

+4
Luck Index Score

Minnesota Timberwolves are getting roughly what they deserve. 46 points vs 46.5 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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46
Wins
Expected: 46.5
9056
Points For
Expected: 46.5
8785
Points Against
0.5
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · at home
115-116
Lost at home against Los Angeles Lakers

One of those games where nothing went right. Minnesota Timberwolves created 115 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 115 goals on an average day. They scored 115. The model valued this match at 0.5 points for Minnesota Timberwolves. They got 0. That's 0.5 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

115
xG Created
116
Opp. xG
-0.5
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW5 · 2025-10-30 · vs Los Angeles Lakers · Home-0.5 pts
Lost 115-116 to Los Angeles Lakers. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 115-116 | xG: 115-116
MW16 · 2025-11-22 · vs Phoenix Suns · Away-0.5 pts
Lost 113-114 to Phoenix Suns. A 1-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 113-114 | xG: 113-114
MW17 · 2025-11-25 · vs Sacramento Kings · Away-0.4 pts
Lost to Sacramento Kings 112-117.
Score: 112-117 | xG: 112-117

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW40 · 2026-01-12 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home+0.5 pts
Edged San Antonio Spurs 104-103. A nail-biter decided by 1 points.
Score: 104-103 | xG: 104-103
MW73 · 2026-03-26 · vs Houston Rockets · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Houston Rockets 110-108. A nail-biter decided by 2 points.
Score: 110-108 | xG: 110-108
MW59 · 2026-02-25 · vs Portland Trail Blazers · Away+0.4 pts
Edged Portland Trail Blazers 124-121. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 124-121 | xG: 124-121

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.2% above expected from shot locations (55.7% eFG vs 54.5% xeFG)
+9
Pythagorean Delta
0 more wins than their point differential predicts
-2
Diff Consistency
Point differential per game says they should be winning more
-2
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-1
Total Luck Index+4

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Minnesota Timberwolves are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of +4 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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