Monaco

Monaco Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-6
Luck Index Score

Monaco have had fortune smiling on them. 4.75 points above what the data says they deserve. Not outrageous, but don't be surprised when the wheels start wobbling.

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46
Points
Expected: 41.25
47
Goals Scored
xG: 48.28
38
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.78
4.8
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Marseille · away
0-1
Lost away against Marseille

A shutout loss that the numbers say should never have happened. Monaco created 2.21 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 2 goals on an average day. They scored 0. The model valued this match at 1.6 points for Monaco. They got 0. That's 1.6 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
82'M. Greenwood scores for Marseille (assist: P. Hojbjerg)
2.21
xG Created
1.79
Opp. xG
-1.6
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW16 · 2025-12-14 · vs Marseille · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 0-1 away despite 2.2 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 2.21-1.79
MW7 · 2025-10-05 · vs Nice · Home-1.3 pts
Drew 2-2 home despite 3.0 xG. Expected 2.3 pts, got 1.
Score: 2-2 | xG: 2.98-1.15
MW18 · 2026-01-16 · vs Lorient · Home-1.3 pts
Lost 1-3 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.3 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-3 | xG: 1.25-1.38

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW14 · 2025-11-29 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Home+2.3 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.52-1.33
MW25 · 2026-03-06 · vs Paris Saint Germain · Away+1.8 pts
Won 3-1 away from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.2 expected.
Score: 3-1 | xG: 1.3-1.62
MW23 · 2026-02-21 · vs Lens · Away+1.7 pts
Won 3-2 away from 1.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.3 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 1.7-1.79

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (205 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-14
xPTS Gap
5 more points than xG simulations predict they deserve
+9
Shot Volume Gap
Getting more points than their shot dominance warrants
+6
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-4
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3
Finishing Luck
Scored 1 fewer goals than their 48.3 xG - wasting chances
-1
Defensive Luck
Conceded 2 fewer goals than the 39.8 xGA opponents generated
+1
Total Luck Index-6

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
No Significant Regression Expected
Last 5: improving|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Monaco are right where they belong. Their Luck Index of -6 means results match performance. What you see is what you get.

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