Nantes

Nantes Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-25
Luck Index Score

Nantes are the definition of "we deserved more." With 17 points from 26.44 expected, they've been robbed of 9.44 points this season. 5 draws tell the story - they're dominating matches and walking away with crumbs. The worst part? They've scored 2 fewer goals than their xG suggests. The finishing is cursed. Genuinely, cosmically cursed.

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17
Points
Expected: 26.44
24
Goals Scored
xG: 25.59
45
Goals Conceded
xGA: 39.32
9.4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Lorient · away
1-2
Lost away against Lorient

One of those games where nothing went right. Nantes generated 1.42 xG, comfortably more than the 0.52 their opponent managed. Lorient generated just 0.52 xG but made it count. The model valued this match at 2.0 points for Nantes. They got 0. That's 2.0 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
32'B. Dieng scores for Lorient (assist: T. Le Bris)
74'M. Abline scores for Nantes (assist: M. Kaba)
89'A. Kouassi scores for Lorient
1.42
xG Created
0.52
Opp. xG
-2.0
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW20 · 2026-01-31 · vs Lorient · Away-2.0 pts
Lost 1-2 away despite 1.4 xG. Expected 2.1 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-2 | xG: 1.42-0.52
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nice · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 1-4 home despite 1.6 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 1.59-1.12
MW25 · 2026-03-07 · vs Angers · Home-1.4 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 0.8 xG. Expected 1.4 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 0.84-0.7

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW3 · 2025-08-30 · vs Auxerre · Home+1.9 pts
Won 1-0 home from 0.5 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 1-0 | xG: 0.48-0.68
MW9 · 2025-10-24 · vs Paris FC · Away+1.9 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.9 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.9-1.19
MW23 · 2026-02-22 · vs Le Havre · Home+1.2 pts
Won 2-0 home from 1.3 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.8 expected.
Score: 2-0 | xG: 1.26-0.7

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

xPTS Gap
9 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-20
Injury Burden
Low injury burden (78 player-games missed) - squad depth available
+10
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-9
Defensive Luck
Conceded 6 more goals than the 39.3 xGA opponents generated
-8
Discipline
Opponents picking up more cards - refereeing luck is on their side
+4
Finishing Luck
Scored 2 fewer goals than their 25.6 xG - wasting chances
-2
Schedule Strength
Faced weaker-than-average opponents so far
0
Total Luck Index-25

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: declining|12 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -25, Nantes are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 9 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

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