New Jersey Devils

New Jersey Devils Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+25
Luck Index Score

New Jersey Devils are getting roughly what they deserve. 80 points vs 77.9 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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80
Points
Expected: 77.9
212
Goals For
Expected: 77.9
230
Goals Against
2.1
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 45 · 2026-01-11 · vs Winnipeg Jets · away
3-4
Lost away against Winnipeg Jets

One of those games where nothing went right. New Jersey Devils created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for New Jersey Devils. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW45 · 2026-01-11 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Winnipeg Jets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW53 · 2026-01-27 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Winnipeg Jets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW65 · 2026-03-12 · vs Calgary Flames · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Calgary Flames. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW67 · 2026-03-16 · vs Boston Bruins · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Boston Bruins 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW62 · 2026-03-04 · vs Toronto Maple Leafs · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Toronto Maple Leafs 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW51 · 2026-01-23 · vs Vancouver Canucks · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vancouver Canucks 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
19-10 in one-goal games (66% win rate vs expected 50%)
+20
OT Loss Rate
2 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-18
Shootout Record
4-0 in shootouts (net +4)
+12
Pythagorean Delta
2 more points than their goal differential predicts
+11
Total Luck Index+25

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New Jersey Devils are riding their luck at +25. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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