New Orleans Pelicans

New Orleans Pelicans Luck Index

2025-26 NBA Season · View NBA standings →

-45
Luck Index Score

New Orleans Pelicans are getting roughly what they deserve. 25 points vs 28.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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25
Wins
Expected: 28.8
8965
Points For
Expected: 28.8
9317
Points Against
3.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 2 · 2025-10-25 · vs San Antonio Spurs · at home
116-120
Lost at home against San Antonio Spurs

One of those games where nothing went right. New Orleans Pelicans created 116 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 116 goals on an average day. They scored 116. The model valued this match at 0.4 points for New Orleans Pelicans. They got 0. That's 0.4 points of bad luck in 48 minutes.

116
xG Created
120
Opp. xG
-0.4
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW2 · 2025-10-25 · vs San Antonio Spurs · Home-0.4 pts
Lost to San Antonio Spurs 116-120.
Score: 116-120 | xG: 116-120
MW5 · 2025-11-01 · vs LA Clippers · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 124-126 to LA Clippers. A 2-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 124-126 | xG: 124-126
MW16 · 2025-11-22 · vs Dallas Mavericks · Away-0.4 pts
Lost 115-118 to Dallas Mavericks. A 3-point game that could have gone either way.
Score: 115-118 | xG: 115-118

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW59 · 2026-02-25 · vs Golden State Warriors · Home+0.4 pts
Beat Golden State Warriors 113-109.
Score: 113-109 | xG: 113-109
MW54 · 2026-02-07 · vs Minnesota Timberwolves · Away+0.4 pts
Beat Minnesota Timberwolves 119-115.
Score: 119-115 | xG: 119-115
MW43 · 2026-01-15 · vs Brooklyn Nets · Home+0.4 pts
Edged Brooklyn Nets 116-113. A nail-biter decided by 3 points.
Score: 116-113 | xG: 116-113

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer wins than their point differential predicts
-20
Shot Quality Luck
Shooting 1.9% below expected from shot locations (52.7% eFG vs 54.6% xeFG)
-15
Win% Gap
Win rate is lower than what their scoring margin deserves
-12
Diff Consistency
Winning more than their per-game margin suggests - efficient in tight spots
+1
Total Luck Index-46

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: stable|4 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New Orleans Pelicans are deeply cursed at -45. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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