New York Islanders

New York Islanders Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

+22
Luck Index Score

New York Islanders are getting roughly what they deserve. 89 points vs 86.3 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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89
Points
Expected: 86.3
223
Goals For
Expected: 86.3
225
Goals Against
2.7
Points Above Expected
Lucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · away
3-4
Lost away against Pittsburgh Penguins

One of those games where nothing went right. New York Islanders created 3 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 3 goals on an average day. They scored 3. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for New York Islanders. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

3
xG Created
4
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW1 · 2025-10-09 · vs Pittsburgh Penguins · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Pittsburgh Penguins. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW46 · 2026-01-13 · vs Winnipeg Jets · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against Winnipeg Jets. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW55 · 2026-01-31 · vs Nashville Predators · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against Nashville Predators. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW65 · 2026-03-10 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away+0.9 pts
Edged St. Louis Blues 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW61 · 2026-03-01 · vs Florida Panthers · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Florida Panthers 5-4. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 5-4 | xG: 5-4
MW60 · 2026-02-28 · vs Columbus Blue Jackets · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Columbus Blue Jackets 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Close Games
27-14 in one-goal games (66% win rate vs expected 50%)
+21
Pythagorean Delta
3 more points than their goal differential predicts
+15
OT Loss Rate
5 OT losses earning loser points - some consolation from OT
-10
Shootout Record
4-5 in shootouts (net -1)
-3
Total Luck Index+23

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Correction Probable
Last 5: stable|5 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

New York Islanders are riding their luck at +22. They're winning games their underlying numbers don't fully support. The correction hasn't started yet, but historical patterns suggest it's coming. A dip in form is probable.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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