Nice

Nice Luck Index

2025-26 Season · View Ligue 1 standings →

-40
Luck Index Score

Nice are getting roughly what they deserve. 27 points vs 30.96 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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27
Points
Expected: 30.96
32
Goals Scored
xG: 35.45
52
Goals Conceded
xGA: 48.71
4
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Angers · at home
0-1
Lost at home against Angers

One of those games where nothing went right. Nice generated 1.31 xG, comfortably more than the 0.83 their opponent managed. The model valued this match at 1.7 points for Nice. They got 0. That's 1.7 points of bad luck in 90 minutes.

Match timeline
33'Y. Belkhdim scores for Angers (assist: C. Arcus)
53'Tom Louchet (Nice) - Red Card
1.31
xG Created
0.83
Opp. xG
-1.7
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW15 · 2025-12-07 · vs Angers · Home-1.7 pts
Lost 0-1 home despite 1.3 xG. Expected 1.7 pts, got 0.
Score: 0-1 | xG: 1.31-0.83
MW5 · 2025-09-20 · vs Stade Brestois 29 · Away-1.6 pts
Lost 1-4 away despite 2.3 xG. Expected 1.6 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-4 | xG: 2.33-2.03
MW18 · 2026-01-17 · vs Toulouse · Away-1.5 pts
Lost 1-5 away despite 2.0 xG. Expected 1.5 pts, got 0.
Score: 1-5 | xG: 1.99-1.84

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW8 · 2025-10-18 · vs Lyon · Home+2.8 pts
Won 3-2 home from 0.6 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.2 expected.
Score: 3-2 | xG: 0.6-3.39
MW9 · 2025-10-26 · vs Rennes · Away+2.3 pts
Won 2-1 away from 0.7 xG. Got 3 pts vs 0.7 expected.
Score: 2-1 | xG: 0.73-1.74
MW19 · 2026-01-25 · vs Nantes · Away+1.9 pts
Won 4-1 away from 1.1 xG. Got 3 pts vs 1.1 expected.
Score: 4-1 | xG: 1.12-1.59

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Injury Burden
High injury burden (191 player-games missed) - key absences hurting
-11
xPTS Gap
4 fewer points than xG simulations say they deserve
-9
Finishing Luck
Scored 3 fewer goals than their 35.5 xG - wasting chances
-7
Defensive Luck
Conceded 3 more goals than the 48.7 xGA opponents generated
-5
Shot Volume Gap
Outshooting opponents but not getting the results to match
-3
Schedule Strength
Faced stronger-than-average opponents - a tough draw
-3
Discipline
Receiving more cards than opponents - decisions going against them
-2
Total Luck Index-40

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Results Expected to Improve
Last 5: declining|11 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

Nice are deeply cursed at -40. This level of underperformance almost never persists. The data they're generating - the chances created, the shots taken, the defensive work - all point to a team better than their record. Regression to the mean is one of the most reliable forces in sports.

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