Ottawa Senators

Ottawa Senators Luck Index

2025-26 NHL Season · View NHL standings →

-20
Luck Index Score

Ottawa Senators are getting roughly what they deserve. 88 points vs 91.8 expected - the football gods are neutral on this one.

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88
Points
Expected: 91.8
251
Goals For
Expected: 91.8
231
Goals Against
3.8
Points Below Expected
Unlucky gap

Luck Index Evolution

How the Luck Index has changed throughout the season

Unluckiest Match of the Season
Matchweek 6 · 2025-10-18 · vs New York Islanders · at home
4-5
Lost at home against New York Islanders

One of those games where nothing went right. Ottawa Senators created 4 xG worth of chances - enough for roughly 4 goals on an average day. They scored 4. The model valued this match at 0.9 points for Ottawa Senators. They got 0. That's 0.9 points of bad luck in 60 minutes.

4
xG Created
5
Opp. xG
-0.9
Pts Lost

☠ Unluckiest Matches

MW6 · 2025-10-18 · vs New York Islanders · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 4-5 against New York Islanders. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 4-5 | xG: 4-5
MW24 · 2025-11-28 · vs St. Louis Blues · Away-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against St. Louis Blues. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4
MW29 · 2025-12-09 · vs New Jersey Devils · Home-0.9 pts
Lost 3-4 against New Jersey Devils. A one-goal margin - the thinnest of margins.
Score: 3-4 | xG: 3-4

✦ Luckiest Matches

MW39 · 2026-01-01 · vs Washington Capitals · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Washington Capitals 4-3. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW23 · 2025-11-26 · vs Vegas Golden Knights · Away+0.9 pts
Edged Vegas Golden Knights 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3
MW12 · 2025-10-30 · vs Calgary Flames · Home+0.9 pts
Edged Calgary Flames 4-3 in OT/SO. Close game that could have gone either way.
Score: 4-3 | xG: 4-3

What's Driving the Luck Index

Each factor's contribution to the Luck Index score. These add up to the total.

Pythagorean Delta
4 fewer points than their goal differential predicts
-20
Close Games
16-20 in one-goal games (44% win rate vs expected 50%)
-8
Shootout Record
3-1 in shootouts (net +2)
+6
OT Loss Rate
10 OT losses earning loser points - collecting free points
+2
Total Luck Index-20

What to Expect Next

Regression Outlook
Improvement Probable
Last 5: stable|7 games left

Based on regression analysis - statistical tendencies, not guarantees.

See the odds
Why?

At -20, Ottawa Senators are meaningfully unlucky. They're roughly 4 points below where their performance says they deserve to be. The underlying quality is there - results are expected to follow as luck normalizes.

Next Matches

No upcoming fixtures available

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